Post by Packers GM (Nick) on May 7, 2019 21:54:57 GMT
Armed with pure ignorance, I took a shot at a first-round mock draft here. I may or may not have skewed what I plan to do (don't want to give away too much). All thoughts welcome!
1. Houston Texans – QB Kyler Murray. The Texans have two quarterbacks in Blake Bortles and Case Keenum, but Bortles likely won’t start and Dwayne Haskins will push Keenum sooner or later. RB is well taken care of with Guice and Drake. WR is a possibility, but QB seems the bigger need. Murray will start in Arizona and has both rushing ability and new weapons.
2. Green Bay Packers – WR N’Keal Harry. Every position is a position of need for the Packers. Big Ben turns into a pumpkin at the end of 2019 and the RB corps (11 of them) lacks quality behind Damien Williams. But Jaelen Strong is their #2 WR right now, so that is probably bleeding the most. There are several good options at WR here, but Harry has skills and quality landing spot.
3. Detroit Lions – RB Josh Jacobs. With Rodgers, Gurley, Hinton, and Woods, Lions are in a position to take best player available. While that could be a WR, I’m thinking the Lions are thrilled to see the only round one running back still available here.
4. Miami Dolphins – WR DK Metcalf. Like Lions, Miami also has the opportunity to go BPA with Wentz, Mack, Mixon, Smith, Baldwin, Jeffrey, Westbook and others. TE could be a need, but it’s a bit early. My guess is that they are sweating the Baldwin retirement rumors. Why not get Baldwin’s potential replacement with a good QB throwing?
5. New York Jets – RB Miles Sanders. The question isn’t position here; it’s which RB. (Actually, there’s a chance they try to grab QB of the future, but Flacco is there for now.) Philly will be an RBBC, but Sanders has room to grow with higher draft capital than most.
6. Green Bay Packers – QB Dwayne Haskins. Big Ben costs $14M against the cap and can be the bridge QB if Haskins takes a year. A cheap QB of the future frees up FA budget for 2020. Packers may not do this, but if you want a QB, this is a sign to trade up or face Daniel Jones. 😊
7. Arizona Cardinals – WR Mecole Hardman. Cardinals have an opportunity to use Saquon in his prime. That means rolling with Fitzmagic at QB and putting a high-upside WR across from Kenny Stills. Hardman appears to be who the Chiefs are getting in case Tyreek Hill punches a nun or takes a flamethrower to a school bus or what-have-you. That’s a valuable role with a quality QB.
8. Carolina Panthers – RB David Montgomery. Will he fall here? No guarantees. But if he does, I’d imaging that Panthers put him with Brady, Fitzgerald, and Miller for a nice offense.
9. New Orleans Saints – WR AJ Brown. Between AJ and Marquis, there are two opportunities for good WRs in run-heavy offenses. Saints pick Titans over a Ravens team whose entire WR corps scored less than 15 individual players last year.
10. Los Angeles Rams – WR Marquis Brown. See #9. Was the #1 drafted IRL, but tough spot.
11. Oakland Raiders – QB Daniel Jones. There is no QB on the team. Jones is likely to get the job at some point. QB are the highest scorers – you can’t win without them. You may wish they aren’t Jones, but you don’t get everything you wish for.
12. Tennessee Titans – LB Kevin White. Titans have a good offensive corps with Mahomes, Fournette, Penny, DJ Moore, and Mike Williams. They also have a decent LB corps but White should start in subpackages from the word go. Don’t be surprised if Titans trade back.
13. New York Jets – TE TJ Hockenson. There’s no TE on the Jets and Hockenson got a good passing offense and the ability to start early.
14. Indianapolis Colts – WR Parris Campbell. The ship sailed on QB, so don’t be surprised if the Colts move up to try to get one of the top QBs. McKinnon, Garcon, Thielen, Michael Thomas, and Njoku are formidable, so getting a signal caller should be a priority. As there’s none here, Colts get who the Colts got – quality across from Hilton.
15. New England Patriots – WR Andy Isabella. There should be a WR run at some point – might as well be here. NE has QB, Melvin Gordon and Hunter Henry, so a WR makes sense, as does Isabella in Arizona’s new look offense.
16. Dallas Cowboys – WR Deebo Samuel. And Deebo should be starting in the slot, with upside.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers – TE Noah Fant. The Hockenson v Fant debate will likely go on for years after this draft as they come from the same school. Both solid athletes and there’s a path to production in year one, a rarity for TEs.
18. Philadelphia Eagles – RB Darrell Henderson. If either Iowa TE were on the board, I think Eagles would grab him. As they aren’t, the Eagles gamble on someone who could be the best RB in this class if something has happened to Gurley. The Rams seemed awful excited to move up for him…
19. Minnesota Vikings – LB Devin Bush. There’s a Ryan Shazier size hole in this defense and the Steelers seem to want Bush to fill it. A solid safe pick, it would seem.
20. Buffalo Bills – WR Hakeem Butler. Carr, Evans, and Reed all have expiring contracts, so we’re looking for an impact this year. Without a solid WR2, that’s the likely position. Butler has same offense, same opportunity as Isabella, but later drafted WR IRL, so later here. But only by a hair.
21. Indianapolis Colts – DE Nick Bosa. Not the most premium position, but an almost certain producer from the word go. With them getting their WR at 14, this is a solid opportunity.
22. San Francisco 49ers – RB Justice Hill. Did I mention the run-heaviness of the Ravens? While it will likely go to Mark Ingram to start, Hill could be a change of pace at this important position.
23. Dallas Cowboys -WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside. Stocking the WR cabinet for 2020 and beyond.
24. Seattle Seahawks – RB Devin Singletary. Who will be left in the Bills backfield next year? With Gore, McCoy, and Yeldon, Singletary has opportunity; whether he has the ability to grasp it is the question.
25. New England Patriots – DE Clelin Ferrell. Good news: you can have the #4 pick at #25! Raiders will be under pressure to prove he was worth it (narrator: he wasn’t) so plenty of opportunity.
26. Minnesota Vikings – TE Jace Sternberger. Automatically higher on people who have Aaron Rodgers throwing to them. It may not be for a year until Jimmy Graham shuffles away, but there’s upside.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB Damien Harris. Yes, he’s behind Michel, but this is the point at which you can take a RB with handcuff upside. And who knows – maybe Michel will oversleep his alarm and be cut.
28. New England Patriots – WR Dionte Johnson. I’ve been looking for a place to put him and think Patriots could end his slide. He has the opportunity to get the spot behind Juju in Pittsburgh.
29. Miami Dolphins – WR Riley Ridley. Many smart people like him. I’m not a huge fan, but the Bears seem to be and it’s at least a good landing spot.
30. Atlanta Falcons – TE Irv Smith Jr. Kyle Rudolph is almost gone and Higbee hasn’t been the guy yet. If the spot opens up, this could be a steal.
31. Minnesota Vikings – RB Bryce Love. If you have Adrian Peterson, and worry about Guice coming back, Love is a great opportunity.
32. Oakland Raiders – RB Alexander Mattison. A third-round pick. Not a speed demon, but could take the Latavius Murray role behind Cook in that offense.
1. Houston Texans – QB Kyler Murray. The Texans have two quarterbacks in Blake Bortles and Case Keenum, but Bortles likely won’t start and Dwayne Haskins will push Keenum sooner or later. RB is well taken care of with Guice and Drake. WR is a possibility, but QB seems the bigger need. Murray will start in Arizona and has both rushing ability and new weapons.
2. Green Bay Packers – WR N’Keal Harry. Every position is a position of need for the Packers. Big Ben turns into a pumpkin at the end of 2019 and the RB corps (11 of them) lacks quality behind Damien Williams. But Jaelen Strong is their #2 WR right now, so that is probably bleeding the most. There are several good options at WR here, but Harry has skills and quality landing spot.
3. Detroit Lions – RB Josh Jacobs. With Rodgers, Gurley, Hinton, and Woods, Lions are in a position to take best player available. While that could be a WR, I’m thinking the Lions are thrilled to see the only round one running back still available here.
4. Miami Dolphins – WR DK Metcalf. Like Lions, Miami also has the opportunity to go BPA with Wentz, Mack, Mixon, Smith, Baldwin, Jeffrey, Westbook and others. TE could be a need, but it’s a bit early. My guess is that they are sweating the Baldwin retirement rumors. Why not get Baldwin’s potential replacement with a good QB throwing?
5. New York Jets – RB Miles Sanders. The question isn’t position here; it’s which RB. (Actually, there’s a chance they try to grab QB of the future, but Flacco is there for now.) Philly will be an RBBC, but Sanders has room to grow with higher draft capital than most.
6. Green Bay Packers – QB Dwayne Haskins. Big Ben costs $14M against the cap and can be the bridge QB if Haskins takes a year. A cheap QB of the future frees up FA budget for 2020. Packers may not do this, but if you want a QB, this is a sign to trade up or face Daniel Jones. 😊
7. Arizona Cardinals – WR Mecole Hardman. Cardinals have an opportunity to use Saquon in his prime. That means rolling with Fitzmagic at QB and putting a high-upside WR across from Kenny Stills. Hardman appears to be who the Chiefs are getting in case Tyreek Hill punches a nun or takes a flamethrower to a school bus or what-have-you. That’s a valuable role with a quality QB.
8. Carolina Panthers – RB David Montgomery. Will he fall here? No guarantees. But if he does, I’d imaging that Panthers put him with Brady, Fitzgerald, and Miller for a nice offense.
9. New Orleans Saints – WR AJ Brown. Between AJ and Marquis, there are two opportunities for good WRs in run-heavy offenses. Saints pick Titans over a Ravens team whose entire WR corps scored less than 15 individual players last year.
10. Los Angeles Rams – WR Marquis Brown. See #9. Was the #1 drafted IRL, but tough spot.
11. Oakland Raiders – QB Daniel Jones. There is no QB on the team. Jones is likely to get the job at some point. QB are the highest scorers – you can’t win without them. You may wish they aren’t Jones, but you don’t get everything you wish for.
12. Tennessee Titans – LB Kevin White. Titans have a good offensive corps with Mahomes, Fournette, Penny, DJ Moore, and Mike Williams. They also have a decent LB corps but White should start in subpackages from the word go. Don’t be surprised if Titans trade back.
13. New York Jets – TE TJ Hockenson. There’s no TE on the Jets and Hockenson got a good passing offense and the ability to start early.
14. Indianapolis Colts – WR Parris Campbell. The ship sailed on QB, so don’t be surprised if the Colts move up to try to get one of the top QBs. McKinnon, Garcon, Thielen, Michael Thomas, and Njoku are formidable, so getting a signal caller should be a priority. As there’s none here, Colts get who the Colts got – quality across from Hilton.
15. New England Patriots – WR Andy Isabella. There should be a WR run at some point – might as well be here. NE has QB, Melvin Gordon and Hunter Henry, so a WR makes sense, as does Isabella in Arizona’s new look offense.
16. Dallas Cowboys – WR Deebo Samuel. And Deebo should be starting in the slot, with upside.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers – TE Noah Fant. The Hockenson v Fant debate will likely go on for years after this draft as they come from the same school. Both solid athletes and there’s a path to production in year one, a rarity for TEs.
18. Philadelphia Eagles – RB Darrell Henderson. If either Iowa TE were on the board, I think Eagles would grab him. As they aren’t, the Eagles gamble on someone who could be the best RB in this class if something has happened to Gurley. The Rams seemed awful excited to move up for him…
19. Minnesota Vikings – LB Devin Bush. There’s a Ryan Shazier size hole in this defense and the Steelers seem to want Bush to fill it. A solid safe pick, it would seem.
20. Buffalo Bills – WR Hakeem Butler. Carr, Evans, and Reed all have expiring contracts, so we’re looking for an impact this year. Without a solid WR2, that’s the likely position. Butler has same offense, same opportunity as Isabella, but later drafted WR IRL, so later here. But only by a hair.
21. Indianapolis Colts – DE Nick Bosa. Not the most premium position, but an almost certain producer from the word go. With them getting their WR at 14, this is a solid opportunity.
22. San Francisco 49ers – RB Justice Hill. Did I mention the run-heaviness of the Ravens? While it will likely go to Mark Ingram to start, Hill could be a change of pace at this important position.
23. Dallas Cowboys -WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside. Stocking the WR cabinet for 2020 and beyond.
24. Seattle Seahawks – RB Devin Singletary. Who will be left in the Bills backfield next year? With Gore, McCoy, and Yeldon, Singletary has opportunity; whether he has the ability to grasp it is the question.
25. New England Patriots – DE Clelin Ferrell. Good news: you can have the #4 pick at #25! Raiders will be under pressure to prove he was worth it (narrator: he wasn’t) so plenty of opportunity.
26. Minnesota Vikings – TE Jace Sternberger. Automatically higher on people who have Aaron Rodgers throwing to them. It may not be for a year until Jimmy Graham shuffles away, but there’s upside.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB Damien Harris. Yes, he’s behind Michel, but this is the point at which you can take a RB with handcuff upside. And who knows – maybe Michel will oversleep his alarm and be cut.
28. New England Patriots – WR Dionte Johnson. I’ve been looking for a place to put him and think Patriots could end his slide. He has the opportunity to get the spot behind Juju in Pittsburgh.
29. Miami Dolphins – WR Riley Ridley. Many smart people like him. I’m not a huge fan, but the Bears seem to be and it’s at least a good landing spot.
30. Atlanta Falcons – TE Irv Smith Jr. Kyle Rudolph is almost gone and Higbee hasn’t been the guy yet. If the spot opens up, this could be a steal.
31. Minnesota Vikings – RB Bryce Love. If you have Adrian Peterson, and worry about Guice coming back, Love is a great opportunity.
32. Oakland Raiders – RB Alexander Mattison. A third-round pick. Not a speed demon, but could take the Latavius Murray role behind Cook in that offense.
